Newsflash: Holiday company TUI has warned that the Boeing 737 Max crisis will cost it €200m.

In an unscheduled announcement, TUI says it has been forced to lease additional aircraft to cover holiday trips, after the 737 Max was grounded by aerospace regulators around the world.

This will take cost the company €200m, assuming that 737 Max’s are cleared to fly by mid-July.

TUI explains:

This impact is especially attributable to costs related to the replacement of aircraft, higher fuel costs, other disruption costs, and the anticipated impact on trading.

This has sent its shares down by 10% in early trading:

The 737 Max was grounded earlier this month, days after the Ethiopian Airlines crash that killed 157 people.

Boeing now faces claims that the plane’s automated flight control system was defective, and that its anti-stall system could have caused the crash in Ethiopia .

The Wall Street Journal reports today that:

Officials investigating the fatal crash of a Boeing 737 MAX in Ethiopia have reached a preliminary conclusion that a suspect flight-control feature automatically activated before the plane nose-dived into the ground.

Neil Wilson of Markets.com says Steven Mnuchin’s tweet has cheered investors, as they wrap up the first quarter of 2019:

“US 10-year Treasury yields are at 2.39%, still on the back foot but off the weekly lows. Equity markets are displaying a bit more optimism again. There is some hope flickering again in terms of trade as Mnuchin and Lighthizer arrive in Beijing for more talks – a tweet this morning saying that these talks were ‘constructive’, with the Chinese vice-premier Liu He set to head to Washington next week for ‘important’ talks.

A nice excuse to bid up markets on the last day of the quarter if ever there was one.

Mining stocks are rallying in London in early trading, as trade war optimism bubbles away.

Glencore, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Anglo American have all gained at least 2%, driving the FTSE 100 up up 45 points or 0.6% to 7278.

Here are some photos of the US delegation arriving for today’s ‘constructive’ talks:

Newsflash: Treasury secretary Mnuchin has tweeted that today’s negotiations have wrapped up.

He says they were “constructive”, and that vice premier Liu He will return to Washington next week for further talks.

Optimism over a trade war breakthrough have sent stocks soaring in China.

The benchmark Shanghai composite index has leapt over 3%, on hopes that Beijing’s ‘unprecedented offer’ to address Washington’s concerns could end the deadlock.

David Madden of CMC Markets says:

Sentiment was largely positive after reports that the trade negotiations between the US and China were improving. It was reported that Beijing made ‘unprecedented’ proposals to the US in relation to forced technology transfers, and that it is a major step forward, as the trade talks were never just about China buying more US goods.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

It’s been a topsy-turvy week for the markets, pushed around by fears that the global economy is slowing. But stocks are ending the week stronger, on hopes that Beijing and Washington could finally make progress to end their trade war.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have returned to the Chinese capital today and are holding fresh talks with Liu He, Beijing’s top trade negotiator.

It’s something of a flying visit – just 24 hours – so it’s not clear quite how much progress they’ll make.

But investors have been cheered by reports that China is making “unprecedented offers” on issues such as forced technology transfers.

The US-China trade war has been a major factor weighing on markets for weeks, pushing nervous investors into safe-haven government bonds, so any signs of a breakthrough would be welcome.

Mnuchin raised spirits as he left his hotel for the talks, telling reporters that:

“We had a very productive working dinner last night, and we are looking forward to meeting today.”

Rob Carnell, chief economist and head of Asia-Pacific research at ING Bank, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning:

“I think ultimately we will be rewarded with a deal of sorts which both sides will proclaim … as a fantastic victory,”

“The thing to bear in mind is this is a process…Whatever we get out of this, it’s nice to say ‘right, okay we’ll draw a line under this bit, now we have to look forward to all the other things that we haven’t sorted out’.”

Also coming up today

At 9.30am, we get a better insight into the UK economy when the third estimate of GDP for the last quarter of 2018 is released.

Economists fear that this data will confirm that business investment kept shrinking, as Brexit approached. They’ll probably also confirm that the economy only grew by 0.2% in October-December.

The agenda

• 9.30am GMT: UK GDP for Q4 2018 (third estimate)
• 1.30pm GMT: Canadian GDP for January
• 12.30pm GMT: US personal spending figures