China: don’t panic about our slowdown
UK pay grows at fastest rate in a decade
IHS: One more shock could trigger a recession
Nariman Behravesh, the chief economist of IHS Global Insight warns that global growth is slowing around the world.
“This year the chances of a recession are around one in three but next year I see it as 50-50”, he tells us, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.
“For 2021 there is the same risk. Growth will be slow enough that it wouldn’t take much of a shock to push it into recession.”
Behravesh added that an intensification of the trade war might be the trigger for a global recession, but the most likely cause would be a policy mistake.Looking at the world’s three biggest economies, he said the US had been boosted temporarily by Donald Trump’s tax cuts, the euro zone was again growing only slowly and the authorities in China were trying to stimulate activity.
“I am worried about China. It is surprising how fragile it is starting to look. All of a sudden the juggernaut is starting to look wobbly.”
Behravesh said he expected a Brexit deal because “a hard Brexit would be horrible both for the UK and the EU. The backlash from business in the UK against a hard Brexit is pretty strong, but the EU is also starting to get worried despite what it says.”
Davos co-chair: Help refugees, don’t be frightened
1,500 private jets expected
Union chief: We need wealth transfer, not warm words
We just caught up with Christy Hoffman, the general secretary of the UNI global union, which represents 20 million service sector workers – from cleaners to Hollywood film directors – in 150 countries.
She said her message to the executives gathered in Davos was the need for a new social contract to revive collective bargaining, manage the change brought about by new technology and spread the benefits of growth more widely.
“Workers think globalisation for the elite, that Davos is for the elite. Where does that leave our global institutions and global trade. If we want a globalised economy it can’t just be for corporations.”
Hoffman said she was shocked by the Oxfam report showing 26 billionaires owned the same wealth as half the world’s population.
There was a lot of talk at Davos about the need to deal with growing inequality but not a lot of action.
“There is no sense of sacrifice. There needs to be a transfer of wealth from one set of pockets to another.”
European markets fall in early trading
Introduction: Financial risks and climate change