Shilan Shah, senior economist at Capital Economics, says the China Caixin manufacturing PMI paints a much bleaker picture than the official PMI published a day earlier.
With the headwinds from cooling global growth and the lagged impact of slower credit growth set to intensify, China’s economy is likely to weaken further over the coming months.
The agenda: global manufacturing, US non-farm payrolls
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The Chinese manufacturing data has come in below expectations this morning, adding to the picture of a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.
The headline index on the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in January, from 49.7 in December, where anything below 50 signals contraction. It was the lowest number in three years, and weaker than the 49.5 predicted by economists.
Later today all eyes will turn to the US non-farm payrolls report for January, which could provide clues about the impact of the government shutdown on the jobs market.
The figures are expected to show that America created 175,000 jobs – down from December’s blistering 301,000.
We’ll also get manufacturing PMIs for the UK, the eurozone and the US. Data firm Markit’s monthly survey of purchasing managers is expected to show that eurozone factories only managed modest growth last month – with a PMI of just 50.5 – barely above stagnation.
That would be worrying, a day after Italy fell into recession.
UK factory growth is expected to have slowed (to 53.5 from 54.2), but still faster than the eurozone.
- 9am GMT: Eurozone manufacturing PMI for January
- 9.30am GMT: UK manufacturing PMI for January
- 10am GMT: Flash estimate of eurozone inflation in January
- 1.30pm GMT: US Non-Farm Payroll for January
- 3pm GMT: US manufacturing PMI for January